Gerall’s Blog

There are lots of arguments I get into with people about complex systems.

Complex systems (like the weather, or the precise pattern of drops coming out of your shower head) can be studied and understood. Predicting their courses remains a serious challenge. Kevin and I argue all the time (and agree to disagree about) global warming. This is fine, and I’ve come to understand that the differences in our opinions aren’t going to cause too much trouble.

Now, it would appear conservationists are changing their tone about the methods by which endangered species become extinct species. In this article, the authors are describing the fact that rarity does not equal endangered status. Fine, I’m up to speed with them on the details.

Over here on the Science Daily website, a really nice map of various kinds of endangered animals shows us that the pattern which conservationists thought they saw might not be reality.

So, what does this tell us? It tells us that conservationists are working with the latest information available to them, making educated guesses, and pressing for conservative policies where they can. This makes sense to me; the complex pattern of global rates of species extinction would be far too arcane to map accurately. Why do I worry about these things? Because you can’t replace life. Why post this article about a pattern too complex for me to understand it all at once? Because maybe it’ll get someone else thinking about it, too.

I don’t believe viable answers will come from one brilliant individual’s efforts to understand a system like this.

I think answers will be found when we start thinking together. Whether we agree on everything or not.

Tags: Complexity //